Thursday, March 8, 2018

FORBES 2018 BILLIONAIRES


(This posting was contributed by board member Patrick Takahashi.)

Joining the three comma club has never been one of my goals.  In fact, growing up in Kakaako, I don't even remember being asked what I wanted to be.  University professor was not on the radar screen and millionaire definitely a pipe dream.  When my older brother became an engineer, that influenced my ultimate decision.

Like opening day for Major League Baseball, announcement of the latest Forbes list of billionaires is among my annual highlights, and this is their 37th. Why?  We need a billionaire for the Blue Revolution.

Incidentally:
  • baseball begins on Thursday, March 29, the earliest in history
  • ALL teams will open on that day, the first time since 1968
  • the final day is September 30
  • I've already signed up for two CDM fantasy teams, and will add a few more of the ESPN variety
The first list in 1982 only had 13 billionaires, and who remembers #1 was Daniel Keith Ludwig (first supertanker) at $2 billion?  Of the top 100, 89 made their fortune in oil.  Warren Buffet was worth a quarter-billion, or $250 million.  Jeff Bezos was 18 and on his way to Princeton, while Bill Gates was 27 and Microsoft had not yet introduced Office.

In 1987 Forbes went international and had five Japanese billionaires at the top, with the richest being Yoshiaki Tsutsumi, owner of Seibu Corporation.  Amazingly enough, I had recently met him and during this period was in discussion with his staff to invest in a geo-spa venture on Maui.  Very long story also involving his older brother, but Yoshiaki soon thereafter ran afoul of the law and kind of disappeared from prominence when the Japanese economic bubble burst in 1992.

From those relatively humble beginnings, the 2018 Forbes list has 2,208 billionaires worth $9.1 trillion: (in billions, and some with family)
  • #1   Jeff Bezos                 $112
  • #2   Bill Gates                  $  91
  • #3   Warren Buffet           $  88
  • #4   Bernald Arnault        $  75  (Louis Vuitton/Christian Dior)
  • #5   Mark Zukerberg        $  72
  • #6   Amancio Ortega       $  66  (Zara/richest European)
  • #7   Carlos Slim Helu      $  69  (Mexico)
  • #8   Charles Koch           $  61
  • #9   David Koch              $  61  (yes, the brothers combined are 
  •                                                 worth more than Bezos)
  • #10 Larry Ellison            $  59
Alice Walton is the richest female at $46 billion, and there are 256 woman billionaires.  I always thought of that inspired billionaire being a man.  Clearly, I need to adjust my attitude.  How many of you knew that TODAY is International Women's Day?

Bezos is less than a factor of ten from becoming a trillionaire.  Again, I must further broaden the scope of the Blue Revolution Angel to include those destined to become the first trillionaire.

Clarendon came up with 20 potential trillionaires.  Some are really too old already.  However:
  • Jeff Bezos could attain trillionaire status in 2023 at the age of 59
  • Mark Zukerberg is pegged for 2030 at the age of 45
  • Larry Ellison needs to live to 2034 when he will be 89
  • Bill Gates, 2035, 79
  • Michael Bloomberg, 2035, 93
  • Larry Page, 2040, 67
  • Sergey Brin, 2040, 67
There are a few not even among the current 2208  triple commas, however, that intrigue me.  Who are they?  You need to be at the next meeting of the Blue Revolution Hawaii board.

-

Thursday, February 15, 2018

THE BLUE REVOLUTION: Wanted...Imaginative Mega-Billionaire!

All my effort to Save Planet Earth and Humanity could well be validated with this posting today.  We all wonder if there is a purpose to our life, and my simple answer is no.  So read on.

The Big Bang, if there was one, created our Universe, and for nearly 14 billion years, stars, planets and life were created, while in sequence, pretty much at random.  It is said there might be a septillion stars out there, which is 1 followed by 24 zeroes, or a trillion trillion.  Yet, we might well be the only life form anywhere.  Until we get obviously alien signals (flying saucers are pure fantasy) confirmed to be real, we are the only intelligence.  Next, maybe robots and artificial intelligence, but those won't be developed unless humans perfect them.

Life is tough, for forming only a little more than 300 million years after Planet Earth appeared 4.6 billion years ago, of the more than five billion species, 99% are now extinct.  Evolution and extinctions resulted in hominins (our earliest ancestors) perhaps 6.5 million years ago.  Mammoths only appeared 4.8 million years ago.  The first Homo genus came as long as 2 million years ago, with us, Homo sapiens, possibly 200,000 years ago, but these dates keep changing.

BBC has an excellent video of the 25 biggest turning points in our history, ending with the advent of Man, so let me move ahead to 2000 years ago with Jesus Christ, while new technology like light begun to come two centuries in the past.  We now have 7.6 billion people and 19 billion chickens, but we are exceeded by maybe 100 billion rodents.  These numbers pale to the 200 trillion 3-inch bristlemouth fish living at the bottom of the ocean.

I have problems with ants, and now I know why.  There are a septillion of them.  Again 1 followed by 24 zeroes. There are more bacteria in a gram of dental plaque than all the people who have ever lived. I can go on and on, but let me end by saying that there are 1 followed by 31 zeroes worth of viruses, and placed end to end (and you can imagine how small they are) you wouldn't be able to guess how far they would stretch.  I'll tell you anyway, 100 million light years, just about the diameter of the Milky Way Galaxy.  But viruses aren't alive, are they?

By now you should be impressed about life on Planet Earth anyway.  So what has all this to do with the Blue Revolution?  Well, Humanity is at the threshold of ruining our world with global warming and not particularly liking each other to boot.
The solution?  The Blue Revolution.  Here is a future that will only happen if the world gets together and proceeds to develop OTEC, using this technology to power floating cities and industrial parks, while producing sustainable energy and resources, plus remediating climate change and minimizing tropical storms.

What is standing in the way of progress?  Money. And motivation.  An iPhone 10 sells for less than $1000.  The Pacific Ocean International Station, the first proposed step towards the Blue Revolution, could easily run beyond $1.5 billion.  There is no financing mechanism for anything so risky and bold.

The Apollo Project was indeed a giant leap for mankind, and came in with an initial budget of $25.4 billion 55 years ago.  Today, the value is $200 billion.  But the USA chose to go to the Moon by 1969 mainly for political reasons.  We were concerned about the Soviet Union, and this decision helped to bankrupt our adversary, ending the Cold War two decades later.

The Blue Revolution does not have the glamour of the Mars Project.  There is a range of cost estimates, but $1.5 trillion sounds about right to get to that enigmatic globe.  Elon Musk says he can do it cheaper and earlier.

In any case, how many can afford Musk's $200,000 flight ticket for tourists to get there?  Maybe this was only a one way price.  So, we reach Mars, what is the point?   Walking on the Moon ended the Cold War, and this was worth $200 billion. But Mars?  Billionaires missed the memo that said outer space has become obsolete for now.

Some mention space mining.  But for what mineral?  Others point to Stephen Hawking's prediction that we only have a century left before something terrible happens on Planet Earth.  Business Insider reports on five reasons why we need to colonize Mars now:
  • Ensure survival of our species.  (Asteroids?  Far-fetched.  The last serious impact was 66 million years ago when the dinosaurs died off.  We are supposedly now in a serious sixth extinction event, but I can't get too excited about the lethality.)
  • Discover life on Mars. (We have failed so far with remote instrumentation, but if life is found, so what?)
  • Improve quality of life on Earth (I miss this point).
  • Growing as a species.  (Huh?  Going to Mars is an awfully expensive way to grow-up, in fact, sounds irresponsible to me.)
  • Demonstrating political and economic leadership. 
On that fifth reason above, yes, it would be a fine achievement for the world to partner for the good of Humanity and Planet Earth.  But any Mars project will not result in anything all that useful, save for some dubious ego satisfaction.  What about the Blue Revolution?  The former would be an amazing feat if life is found and a few end up surviving on the Red Planet.  But that's about all.  The latter:
  • Sustainable energy and resource pathways:
    • hydrogen
    • freshwater
    • biofuels
    • methanol
    • rare earths
    • much more
  • New economic development.
  • Attractive habitats for an alternative life style.
  • Replenishment of fisheries.
  • Prevention of hurricanes.
  • Remediation of global warming.
I can add to the above cornucopia of benefits, but this comparison is almost pointless.

Mind you, I once worked for NASA's Ames Research Center on the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, and am a fan of space.  We should continue much of the scientific activity, and more, really.  Someday, of course, we almost surely might need to send pioneers to other worlds.  But the timing is not now.  In a millennium, maybe, but more probably closer to a million years when we have mastered travel through wormholes, if that is ever achieved.

The 2017 Forbes billionaires list numbered 2043.  Their total net worth was $7.67 trillion.  Bill Gates has been #1 for 18 of the past 23 years and Jeff Bezos, who is now #3, added $27.6 billion in one year.  Mainland China had 76 newly recognized billionaires.  Click on iBlue Revolution to review a history of analyses regarding billionaires and the Blue Revolution.  To quote one posting:


In any case, you don't just go up to a billionaire and ask for money.  You need that key connection, compelling vision and fundamental link to a special passion.  Most desire to help the downtrodden, prevent diseases and reverse poverty.  Surely, among the 2000 psyches there just has to be a particular enlightened individual dedicated to Planet Earth, wishing for something extraordinary to provide some key commodities in harmony with the natural environment.  For only $1.5 billion--one percent the cost of the International Space Station, a $150 billion space adventure that meant well, but will crash into oblivion in the Year 2020--the Blue Revolution represents the next economic frontier for Humanity to generate a cornucopia of sustainable products while enhancing our environment.

I tried, even personally donated funds to  show my commitment, and certainly haven't given up on finding a major benefactor.  But perhaps you're better suited to involve that special tycoon.  If so, you really don't need me.  Go ahead, take the leadership role.  Involve that billionaire to Save Humanity and Planet Earth with the Blue Revolution.  Glad to be of service should you need any advice.

Practicality will prevail, so the first Blue Revolution prototype will no doubt be placed in a reasonably ideal location where natural conditions will permit the utilization of OTEC.


Frankly something closer to the equator would be best, for no hurricane has ever crossed from one hemisphere to the other, plus this is where the surface temperatures are at a maximum, with 4 degrees Celsius still available at 1000 meter depths.

All things considered, then, Hawaii would be the perfect spot to build and test the Pacific Ocean International Station because we have succeeded in more workable OTEC experiments than anyone else, have a thriving Natural Energy Laboratory Laboratory Authority to provide expertise and have chaired more conferences and workshops  on related subjects.  As mentioned two days ago we already have billionaires with close association to this 50th State with ideal names:
  • Pierre Omidyar International Station (POI Station)
  • Larry Ellison International Station (LEI Station)
I can add a third:  Pacific Ocean Steve Case or POS Case, a stretch, but there no doubt are others.  We would welcome someone from Japan, China or anywhere else.  Most important is that sincere drive to consider the ocean as the solution for Humanity and Planet Earth. 

Anyone reading this posting linked to a potential mega-supporter, please contact Blue Revolution Hawaii.  Three coordinators are co-authoring a presentation on the Blue Revolution at the Paris Hotel in Las Vegas next week:
  • Leighton Chong (left, LKMChong@aol.com) directs the Hawaii effort, is a patent attorney and copyrighted Blue Revolution for our organization,
  • Benny Ron (rightTetsuzanBennyRon@gmail.com) originally from Israel with a special zen association in Japan, is marshaling the session, and
  • I (PatKenTak@hotmail.com) will give the talk.
That billionaire would not be expected to personally come up with the full $1.5 billion.  He/She can serve as the illuminous catalyst to launch the effort...someone who convert Fantasy into REALITY.